The Future Is Electric or TFIE Strategy Inc was founded in 2018 by Michael Barnard, Chief Strategist, after a global technology and business strategy career and a decade of analysis and publication on decarbonization.

TFIE’s mission is to ensure that as much of the trillions spent on climate solutions in the coming decades is spent intelligently, wisely and quickly.

 

Michael Barnard spends his time projecting scenarios for decarbonization 40-80 years into the future, and assisting executives, boards and investors to pick wisely today.

Whether it’s refueling aviation, grid storage, vehicle-to-grid, or hydrogen demand, his work is based on fundamentals of physics, economics and human nature, and informed by the decarbonization requirements and innovations of multiple domains. His leadership positions in North America, Asia and Latin America enhance his global point of view.

Michael has been invited to sit on multiple advisory boards and accepted a tiny number of the offers. He publishes regularly in Forbes, CleanTechnica and other outlets on decarbonization, business and policy.

He is host of the podcast Redefining Energy – Tech , a channel within the award winning Redefining Energy ecosystem that European investment bankers Laurent Segalen and Gerard Reid created. His research has been published in books and peer-reviewed journals. He is regularly invited to speak at academic, technical and business conferences as well as corporate events.

 

 

Engagement Case Studies

 

 

€4 Billion Euro Investment Fund

The European investment fund firm was extending beyond the core of their previous wind and solar generation activities on behalf of major pension funds. Michael was engaged to assist the fund managers to assess and formulate investment theses for their third €4 billion euro fund. The scope was North American and European industrial sector decarbonization including heat and grid electricity storage.

 

Multi-billion $ Private Energy Firm Venture Capital Arm

The venture capital arm was working to find and fund the future energy technologies for the private Latin American and European energy firm that they worked for. Michael was engaged to first review and discuss the initial investment theses options. Subsequently, he was engaged to assist with a deep dive on biofuel technology investment theses, including creation of a strategically aligned criteria set to assist them with ranking choices.

 

 

Major investment bank client briefings

One of the top five US investment banks has regular sessions to inform and challenge its global client base of institutional investors. Michael has been engaged to debate small modular nuclear reactor investability, to provide a perspective on the requirement for significant grid expansion and challenges and to provide a perspective on what forms of low-carbon generation will dominate and where they will be located. These presentations were for hundreds of attendees and potentially a trillion dollars in capital under management.

 

Maritime decarbonization strategy offsite

The technology, design and engineering division of a major private conglomerate with bulk, roro and ferry operations in Northern Europe and globally had a strategic technical offsite session for their senior technical executives and engineers. Michael was engaged to present on likely maritime decarbonization pathways through 2100, with a focus on biofuels and batteries, and to participate in a debate with alternative decarbonization representatives including methanol and nuclear proponents.

 

Advisory Boards

Multiple organizations have reached out for ongoing strategic advisory services as part of their governance boards. Michael has sat on the advisory boards of advanced electro-chemistry battery firms and electric aviation firms. Michael is very selective about engaging only with firms who are doing the right thing and have technologies and business models that have strong potential, and has turned down roughly ten times as many offers as he has accepted.

 

EU upstream methane monitoring and reporting dialogues

The European Union is conducting a series of global dialogues to bring alignment on monitoring, reporting and verification and hence reduction of methane emissions along the natural gas value chain from well to LNG shipping. Michael was asked by an EU funded organization to find Canadian firms capable of organizing and hosting methane leakage dialogues. He brought several consultancies into the procurement process and is engaged with the winning firm in running workshops with Canadian and European stakeholders on defining the system boundaries and technical issues related to methane emissions from natural gas and LNG initiatives.

 

Renewables developer strategy offsite

A major North American wind and solar developer was bringing their Canadian and American teams together for three days of strategic planning and team building. Michael was invited to provide a contextual overview of the full short list of climate actions that will work and to run strategy options brainstorming and decision making exercises.

 

Multi-billion dollar infrastructure investment fund

A multi-billion dollar Canadian investment fund with a focus on low-carbon investment was having their strategy offsite session. Michael was invited to provide a vision of the decarbonized future with the short list of climate actions that would work ranked by impact and costs.

 

Major Publications

 

Michael has published and iterated multiple core intellectual contributions to the decarbonization discussion. His multi-factorial scenarios of hard-to-abate sectors through 2100 are shaping debates and investment.

 

 

The Short List of Climate Actions That Will Work

 
For several years, Michael has been publishing and iterating his short list of climate actions that will work. This blunt and concise synthesis of multiple sectors has stood the test of time since its first publication years ago and continues to be the basis for discussion and framing of the solution space. – Most recent iteration of the list on Forbes.

 

 

Maritime shipping decarbonization

 Michael has integrated inland, short sea and deep water shipping tonnage and fuel consumption from multiple global sources. His projections have all inland and two-thirds of short sea shipping running on batteries, mostly containerized, with the remainder running on hybridized biofuel-battery ships. Please visit the links below for additional information.

Core Publications – Maritime Shipping

– Global Shipping Less Of CO2e Problem Today Than Aviation, More By End Of Century

– There’s A Clear Channel For Decarbonizing Maritime Shipping, But Shipping Firms Aren’t In It

 

 

Aviation decarbonization

 Michael has projected a scenario of aviation demand that respects fuel cost increases, demand substitution with high-speed rail, lowered population growth projections and more. He has assessed battery energy density improvements and multiple energy alternatives for aviation in coming up with his most likely to succeed choices, batteries and biofuels. Please visit the links below for additional information.

Core Publications – Aviation Decarbonization

– How Aviation Will Decarbonize Decade By Decade Until 2100 (part 1) and

– How Aviation Will Decarbonize Decade By Decade Until 2100 (part 2)

– Electrified Regional Air Mobility Will Be Disruptive & Mature Rapidly In Coming Years

– Electrification Of Aviation Is Starting With Aerospace Trying To Invent Markets

 

Steel decarbonization projection through 2100

Michael has assessed the growth of steel demand and supply since 1990 globally. He has assessed the multiple current and lab technologies for decarbonizing steel and created a projection of steel demand and technologies supplying it through 2100. Please visit the links below for additional information.

Core Publications – Steel Decarbonization

– Steel Is A Major Climate Problem, But We Have Proven Tools

– Steel Is A Major Climate Problem, But Can Decarbonize Rapidly In The Coming Decades

– Steel’s Outsized Carbon Emissions Will Shrink Rapidly In Coming Decades Even As Demand Rises

 

Grid Storage Demand Projection through 2060

Michael has assessed all major grid electricity storage technologies and many minor ones. He has created a criteria set and evaluated the major technologies against it to create a scenario projection through 2060 of the likely grid storage winners and losers. Please visit the links below for additional information.

Core Publications – Grid Storage Demand

– Grid Storage Winners Part 1: Assessing The Major Technologies

– Grid Storage Winners Part 2: How Much Of Which Storage By When?

 

Hydrogen demand projection through 2100

Michael has assessed all major demand areas for hydrogen and most projected future demand areas. His heterodox projection of fall in demand for hydrogen is based on understanding that a full third of hydrogen demand is from oil refineries, and that is mostly from heavy, sour crude oils which will be first off the market as peak oil demand occurs in this decade. He’s assessed and rejected increased demand from multiple hydrogen for energy scenarios as being uneconomic. Please visit the link below for additional information.

Core Publications – Hydrogen Demand

– Hydrogen Demand Is Going To Fall Even Faster In Updated 2100 Projection

 

 

Perspectives on nuclear energy

Since 2014, Michael has been tracking and publishing on the natural experiment of nuclear vs renewables playing out in China. That country has the ability to create the seven major conditions of success required for scaled nuclear generation based on historical lessons in the USA, France, South Korea and Canada. Despite this, China has been unable to scale nuclear generation successfully compared to wind, solar and water. His material on this has been included in the global best selling and awarded book How Big Things Get Done by Professor Bent Flyvbjerg , global megaprojects expert, and Dan Gardner, co-author of multiple best selling books including Superforecasting. Michael has assessed the current focus on small modular nuclear reactors and finds the claims wanting. Please visit the links below for additional information.

Core Publications – Nuclear Energy

– Renewables In China Trend Upward While Nuclear Trends Flat

– Nuclear Energy & Free Market Capitalism Aren’t Compatible

– Small Modular Nuclear Reactors Are Mostly Bad Policy