EU hydrogen demand explorer
Explore how electricity, industry including other chemicals, imports and transport fuels affect modeled EU hydrogen demand.
Competition sensitivity, not a regulatory-compliance forecast. This scenario intentionally does not impose hydrogen-specific uptake quotas or synthetic-fuel mandates. It covers selected industrial markets, a costed screening of unidentified other chemicals, and residual transport services, not all EU consumption. ENTSO-E, ENTSOG and ENNOH are jointly developing TYNDP 2028 scenarios; the proposed test is additional industrial and transport-fuel competition under comparable climate objectives.
Dashboard v0.45-rc1 · Python comparison v1.8.0rc1 · Policy release v1.8.1 · Units schema 2.0
Explore a transition scenario
Adjust the sliders to update demand and the supply mix.
Swipe the chart sideways to see all three years.
Additional scenario settings and year-by-year data
Marine and aviation fuel routes use separate energy-service units. Domestic fuel-processing H₂ is counted within EU consumption; H₂ embodied in imported fuels is reported separately. Additional conventional supply is assumed, not verified.
Other chemicals: supplied hydrogen and competing routes
This release replaces the former unallocated chemical H₂ requirement with capacity-limited, cost-ranked routes. It accounts for chemical H₂ once in physical EU consumption and shows unmet reference output separately. The aggregate chemical product basket and its route costs are not empirically validated.
Swipe the route table horizontally to see the cost and physical-H₂ columns.
Units matter: selected activity and capacities are 2024 H₂-equivalent reference activity, not tonnes of an identified chemical product. Only H₂ supplied through fossil, clean EU or physically imported molecules enters the consumption total. Imported products and process substitution do not. The 25%/20%/20% shares are 2050 maximum route capacities, not mandated allocations. Other sectors are allocated hydrogen first; this is sequential screening, not a joint seven-sector optimization.
Conventional supply in the six established industrial markets
This section describes the six established industrial markets; chemical supply has its own route table above. Fallback is invoked only after their modeled competitive routes. Existing capacity retained beyond retirement plans, newly built fossil-H₂ capacity and imported conventional products are distinct, costed sources. Imported quantities retain the unit of each product and are not added together.
Maritime and aviation fuel routes and processing hydrogen
Marine service uses shaft energy and aviation service uses residual fuel energy; they are not interchangeable. The selected cohorts are not full-EU transport demand.
Material modeled constraints: 120, 225 and 300 TWh total sustainable liquid-fuel resource ceilings in 2030, 2040 and 2050; 70% lignocellulosic residue / 30% waste lipids; 60% maximum imported finished-fuel share; 5% maximum synthetic SAF in the selected residual aviation-fuel cohort. The 5% is a model ceiling, not a regulatory minimum. Resource quantities and route prices are analyst assumptions and do not establish future supply or legal eligibility.
Delivered hydrogen costs and electricity inputs
Power capacity is an electrical-input rating. Annual hydrogen output depends on full-load hours and electricity consumed per kilogram. The generic delivery allowance, onsite supply and hub/pipeline delivery describe different supply boundaries.
Industrial products, services and imports
Ammonia and iron flows use their own product units; hydrogen embodied in imported products is excluded from EU consumption.
Energy and transport service balances
Freight, useful heat, shaft work and electricity discharged are separate services. Their output quantities are not aggregated across markets.
Data, units and interpretation
Units and scope
Export the selected scenario and its units. The accompanying evidence workbook documents source and assumption boundaries.
Evidence boundaries
The model screens competing routes without imposing hydrogen-specific mandates; it does not certify suppliers, demonstrate current-law RFNBO or synthetic-fuel compliance, establish lifecycle emissions or estimate jobs retained. Future electricity costs, import capacities, technology availability and industrial turnover are scenario assumptions. Grid expansion, project-level pipeline finance and full-economy welfare require further analysis. No probabilities are assigned to these cases.